On Causes and Consequences

We’ve been laughing as a community on the internet for years at the naive Polynesians who profess… cargo cult In reality, manifestations of this cult are visible everywhere in our post-Soviet reality.

We have a large agricultural company that is wealthy and independent, with its fields being traversed by ultra-modern and extremely expensive harvesting machines, tractors, and other equipment. It’s very impressive. However, when you try to sell them something else, it turns out they are just two steps away from bankruptcy, they have no money, they are up to their ears in debt, and they don’t even know how to pay their employees’ salaries. What is this? Client deception and standard. excuse “There’s no money”? Not at all. This is a direct manifestation of the cargo cult. Let me explain.

The owner looks at successful farms and sees that they have expensive, new equipment, and it’s their own, not leased or rented. He thinks that in order to become wealthy, he needs to invest in trendy and shiny things. This is a clear manifestation of “cult” thinking: trendy and shiny will bring me money, yield a good harvest, and free me from poor-quality seeds and weather issues. However, in reality, new and shiny equipment is not the cause but rather a consequence of the farm’s prosperity.

A sober manager will take Excel and calculate all possible options and points at which one option becomes more or less attractive compared to the others. And if it’s more profitable to store grain in floor bags, then it should be stored in bags rather than building a beautiful and shiny grain storage facility that will never pay off given the production volumes.

And this is not just in agriculture. It’s also in the marble steps leading to the most rundown bank, and in the desire to hang advertisements to boost one’s self-esteem: successful people display them, so that must be the root of their success. It’s in the passion of a certain type of girls for expensive restaurants and clothes, and in the choice of university to attend: I know successful lawyers, so I’ll go to law school (and join the ranks of cheap legal consultants in small companies), and so on.

More examples: Many people often find it important to have a “star” entry in their work record book, with a beautiful title like “Vice President of the Inhabited Universe.” In reality, this is once again a case of confusing cause and effect. A person sees that successful individuals typically hold impressive titles and concludes that it is the flashy title, rather than their own talents, that will bring them luck and success. The cargo cult manifests everywhere: in the purchase of a car or expensive status symbols, in choosing a school or sport for their child, in selecting friends, and so on.

Why is all of this a cargo cult? Because people think that by building a runway, they will attract cargo planes. However, it’s actually the other way around: it is precisely because cargo planes need to land in that location that a runway is built.

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